Daily MLB Hit Prop Short List — April 25, 2025
- Brandon Weger
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
A fresh batch of bats primed for contact. Today’s slate loads us up with right-handed arms, so we’re hunting righty-masher splits and one lethal lefty killer. Below are the five hitters clearing the 0.68 hit-probability bar in our model. All projections assume four plate appearances; adjust if late lineup moves shave reps.
Why these five crack the card
Rank | Hitter | Rationale |
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) | .397 BA vs RHP this year gives him an 86.8 % chance to scratch a knock. Facing José Berríos, whose four-seam has been tagged for a .296 xBA through April. Judge’s towering 13 % barrel rate seals it. | |
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) | Torching righties at .364 with eight bombs; probabilities jump to 83.6 % versus rookie Shane Baz, who’s leaning 52 % fastballs—Tatis’ favorite entrée (.440 xwOBA). | |
3. Pete Alonso (NYM) | .342 BA vs RHP plus the league’s highest hard-hit rate (62 %). Jake Irvin’s ground-ball dip (to 40 %) plays into Alonso’s lift-heavy approach. 81.3 % hit odds. | |
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | Even in a cool stretch, .263 vs righties and a 46 % sweet-spot rate offer a sturdy 70.5 % chance against Paul Skenes’ debut road start. Dodgers have a 124 team wRC+ vs RHP—traffic helps. | |
5. Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | Career .295 vs RHP at home; using a conservative .252 2024 split still returns 68.7 % versus Zac Gallen, whose fastball is down 1.4 mph year-to-date. Acuña’s 11 % walk clip cushions plate-appearance risk. ([Acuna Stats Vs Right Handed Pitching |
Two bite-size parlays (+100 to +200 range)
Judge 1+ hit AND Alonso 1+ hit (~-105 ➜ +100)Both rank top-10 in contact quality vs four-seamers; Irvin/Berríos sit top-3 in four-seam usage among today’s probables.
Tatis 1+ hit AND Acuña 1+ hit (~-110 ➜ +108)Combines a righty-basher in Petco’s mild weather with Acuña’s mile-high hard-contact floor against a diminished Gallen.
(Shop books—actual prices drift with each lineup lock.)
Model notes & caveats
Lineups posted 9:40 a.m. CT via RotoWire; monitor for late scratches.
Injury scan shows all five cleared and active; none currently on IL.
Plotted probabilities use season-to-date split samples except Acuña, where 2024 data subbed for limited 2025 LH sample. Small-sample volatility remains—scale stakes accordingly.
Data gaps: StatMuse hasn’t published 2025 splits for some lefty matchups, and team beat writers still finalizing confirmed batting orders for West-coast games. We’ll tighten figures once those lock.
Quick Board Update — Acuña Jr. Scratched
Morning chaos never sleeps. Ronald Acuña Jr. is swirling in trade-rumor smoke after last week’s social-media dust-up with the Braves front office, and multiple books—including DraftKings—have pulled his hitter props for today. (Ronald Acuna takes stunning shot at Braves after Jarred Kelenic gets off easy over lack of hustle, Fact Check: Did Braves REALLY Trade Ronald Acuna Jr. to Mets ..., Rumors swirl as Ronald Acuna Jr. sparks trade speculation with ...) I’ve yanked him from the model card to keep the slate clean.
Featured Parlay ⚡️
Judge + Tatis + Ohtani + Alonso — Each to record 1+ hitProjected payout range: +245 to +285 (shop the line—odds vary by book).
Leg | Edge Note |
Aaron Judge | League-best .397 vs RHP; Berríos’ four-seam xBA is .296. |
Fernando Tatis Jr. | .364 vs RHP and a 52 % fastball diet from Baz fits his wheelhouse. |
Shohei Ohtani | .263 split vs righties; Skenes making his first hostile-road start in Chavez Ravine. |
Pete Alonso | .342 vs RHP, 62 % hard-hit rate, and Irvin’s ground-ball dip plays into his loft. |
Why one four-legger?These bats sit atop today’s individual probability board (all ≥ 0.70 to notch a knock), and combining the quartet lands us in a plus-money pocket that still keeps variance manageable. Hedge small with a two-leg mini (Judge + Tatis at -130 to +100) if you prefer reduced risk.
Responsible-Play Reminder
Wager for fun, never for rescue. Stick to a unit size that fits your bankroll, set loss limits, and unplug if emotions start steering the wheel. Help is always available—dial 1-800-GAMBLER (or your local line) if gambling stops feeling like a game. The Edge by Wegs Benedict provides information, not guarantees.
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